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recent car bombs in Riyadh should act as a reminder that, whatever
precautions are taken, determined terrorists will always manage
to get through our defences. Therefore, a balance must be struck
between restricting terrorist movements and maintaining a free
society. But are we getting this balance right?
Riyadh also illustrates the gulf between
the hype and the reality of terror. For the past 20 months,
many in the media and elsewhere have focused much of their
attention on so-called weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
These encompass chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear
(CBRN) devices and vary in importance and impact according
to what you read.
Yet, despite these fanciful and, some
might say, speculative or anticipatory scenarios, the actuality
of terrorism remains rather more mundane. Since 11 September
2001 terrorist attacks have largely consisted of surface-to-air
missiles (SAM) and car bombs. Indeed, some commentators have
already noted that detonating such devices in the Saudi capital
is a bit like blowing up your own living room to get rid of
an unwanted guest.
As the US State Department's own 'Patterns
of Global Terrorism' statistical report for 2002 reveals,
out of approximately 200 terrorist attacks that occured last
year, fewer than 10 were perpetrated in North America or Western
Europe. This is not to suggest that we can all relax; but
rather, that in whatever discussion ensues on these matters
we need to ensure an appropriate sense of perspective is maintained.
Al Qa'ida is not equivalent to the Red
Army, against whom the Western powers maintained a stand-off
for almost half a century under the threat of mutually assured
destruction (MAD). Yet, we seem to have turned this latest
threat into a very potent one in our minds. The Soviet Union
was known to have a vast nuclear arsenal and a significant
chemical and biological weapons capability. Is it possible
that our fears about Osama bin Laden and his acolytes tell
us rather more about ourselves and our attitudes to unexpected
risks than about the enemies that we now face?
In February 2003, a US Government advisory
panel published its report, 'Towards a National Strategy for
Combating Terrorism'. This covers some well-rehearsed ground
amongst intelligence and security circles, suggesting that
the best form of defence is offence. Yet, when it comes to
the offensive, many of the terms used in this '4D strategy'
(defeat, deny, diminish, defend) appear remarkably defensive
in outlook.
Despite allusions to a 'war of ideas',
the document seems remarkably bereft on this front. There
is a tendency to merely assume things that ought to be more
clearly spelt out. . Freedom and democracy get a look in,
but their content remains unexplored. It has never ceased
to amaze me, since I started examining these matters, how
little there is by way of a positive promotion of what we
stand for, what we expect those who are 'with us' to fight
for, and where it is we think we are heading.
Surely, it is not too much to ask our
leaders to spell this out more fully? After all, if we believed
in and felt inspired by a common sense of mission, then not
only would our societies be more resilient in the face of
adversity, but there may be others, in less fortunate parts
of the world, who may wish to buy-into those aspirations too.
Rather than dictating democracy to them, maybe we should get
our own house in order.
Defeating terrorism cannot be limited
to better gadgetry either. Yet, alongside the calls for new
protective equipment and better detection instruments, the
desire for better intelligence or new structures of governance
are also rather narrow and technical aims. If we are not careful,
the vast sums of money being poured into the blue-light services
and other emergency response operations may all go to feeding
a new bureaucracy, rather than truly protecting ourselves.
It is vital therefore, that the public
become involved in these debates and that they tell their
leaders how they would wish to see things prioritised. Many
argue there is little time for such niceties. We face a real
enemy now, which has to be dealt with. There will, according
to this view, be plenty of time later for more philosophical
discussion as to the future of society or engaging the masses
in such a discourse. I could not disagree more.
What we do today is informed by where
we believe we are heading, and it will affect where we are
tomorrow and the kind of debate we will then have. Monitoring
our neighbours, or putting more cameras everywhere, may make
us feel safer for a short while, but eventually this approach
will serve only to further fragment the human bonds that bind
us together as a society. Our technologies reflect our priorities,
not vice-versa.
For instance, I have heard it said more
than once that we need to understand why it is that a small
number of Asian youth are attracted by fringe Islamist groups.
This strikes me at best as a remarkable inversion of the real
issue, at worst as a form of self-denial. In truth, we need
to understand why Asian youth, and many others besides, are
no longer attracted to our vision of the future. What is it
about our societies, at the beginning of this new century,
that leaves them so bereft of the ability to inspire, provide
purpose, meaning and structure to people's lives, and thereby
allow people to realise their ambitions?
Our failure, not their magnetism is key
here. They are effectively pushed not pulled. To suggest otherwise
is to deny the real balance of power and responsibility. And
this problem of disillusion impacts well beyond the 'usual
suspects'. I would suggest that even if we managed to rid
ourselves of every last member of Al Qa'ida tomorrow, the
problems we face will not go away. Our exaggerated sense of
fear would still be with us. But, more significantly, by elevating
our perceived vulnerabilities consistently for over a year
now, we have effectively educated a new generation of terrorists,
cranks, hoaxers and disaffected loners as to how to undermine
our societies and our sense of well-being using such rudimentary
tools as box-cutters and bags of sugar.
In closing, I point to a further conundrum
this conference ought to address; that is, the culture of
mistrust and cynicism at home. It is clear for instance, that
even if a bucket of white powder or some other agent was to
be discovered in Baghdad tomorrow, many of our domestic population
would believe, despite the evidence, that the Americans had
planted it there.
Maybe some of the greatest battles we
will face in the war on terror are battles on the home front,
or battles in our minds. Refusing to recognise this and continuing
to prosecute a traditional campaign against enemies 'out there'
may well be a failure to recognise what truly changed at the
end of the Cold War. This could lead to a far longer and more
destructive campaign than anyone yet anticipates.
'Communicating the War on Terror' was
designed to address many of these issues and to engage the
public first-hand in shaping this future. What should Governments
tell the public about terror threats? What is the role of
the media in the war on terror? These are just two hooks around
which many deeper issues lie. I hope the debate continues
long after the event. There has never been a more pressing
time to examine our beliefs, our fears and our sense of purpose.
Bill Durodié is Senior Research
Fellow in the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College
London where he
co-ordinates the 'Domestic Management of Terrorist Attacks'
programme.
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